In most cases, however, this "let-present-trends-continue" option will drop
out of your final analysis. This happens because, if you do your problem definition
work well, you will end up with an important problem in your sights that in
most cases can be mitigated to some degree by some affirmative action.
Inspect the most common sources of "natural" change in the public policy
environment to see if any will affect the scope of the problem:
I. Political changes following elections, as well as changes induced by the
prospects of having to contest an election
2. Changes in unemployment and inflation rates that accompany the business
cycle
3. The changing "tightness" or "looseness" of agency budgets caused by
overall taxing and spending policies
4. Demographic changes, such as population migration patterns and population
"bulges" moving through certain ages.