This problem is analogous to the tasks faced by financial analysts. The bag is like a company that in the future may operate in the black or in the red. So in accordance with generally accepted accounting colors, black chips stand for good future earnings, red for poor future earnings. Analysts start out with information that leads them to form their initial beliefs. In this case, beliefs concern the probability that the bag contains predominantly black chips. The most frequent answer given to the first of the two preceding questions is 45 percent. So, the bag of chips is like a company that appears more likely to generate poor future earning than good future earnings.