we applied an existingmodel to predictwater temperatures from air temperatures for shallow, wind exposed and holomictic water bodies.
To evaluate the implications of our results for marine systems, we also analyzed water temperature data of Marsdiep, a tidal inlet to the
Waddensea. The lake water temperature model fitted equally well to all four water bodies. Applying the water temperature model to the
period 1961–2006 showed an annual increase of 0.042 °C irrespective of lake size and depth.We extrapolated the consequences of lake
warming for the onset of growth of larval bream and the size of young-of-the-year bream at the end of the year using an existing fish
hatching and growthmodel. Bothmodelswere tested against data fromLake Tjeukemeer,which is intermediate in size compared to Lake
Zwemlust and Lake IJsselmeer. The main conclusions of this study are that 1) there is a very tight coupling between air and water
temperatures in Dutch shallow lakes, irrespective of their size, resulting in highly similar patterns of lake temperature and a direct
translation of climate warming into lake warming; 2) on average water temperature has increased by 2 °C in the period 1961–2006; 3)
temperature patterns in the tidal inlet showed a surprising resemblance with the lake temperature patterns, the coastal marine system
essentially behaving like an extremely large lake; 4) there are, however, strong seasonal patterns in the extent of warming in a given
period of the year; 5) lake warming leads to ca. 3 weeks earlier onset of growth and 20mmlarger sizes in bream during 1971–2006 under
the assumption of temperature limited growth in these eutrophic ecosystems.
we applied an existingmodel to predictwater temperatures from air temperatures for shallow, wind exposed and holomictic water bodies.To evaluate the implications of our results for marine systems, we also analyzed water temperature data of Marsdiep, a tidal inlet to theWaddensea. The lake water temperature model fitted equally well to all four water bodies. Applying the water temperature model to theperiod 1961–2006 showed an annual increase of 0.042 °C irrespective of lake size and depth.We extrapolated the consequences of lakewarming for the onset of growth of larval bream and the size of young-of-the-year bream at the end of the year using an existing fishhatching and growthmodel. Bothmodelswere tested against data fromLake Tjeukemeer,which is intermediate in size compared to LakeZwemlust and Lake IJsselmeer. The main conclusions of this study are that 1) there is a very tight coupling between air and watertemperatures in Dutch shallow lakes, irrespective of their size, resulting in highly similar patterns of lake temperature and a directtranslation of climate warming into lake warming; 2) on average water temperature has increased by 2 °C in the period 1961–2006; 3)temperature patterns in the tidal inlet showed a surprising resemblance with the lake temperature patterns, the coastal marine systemessentially behaving like an extremely large lake; 4) there are, however, strong seasonal patterns in the extent of warming in a givenperiod of the year; 5) lake warming leads to ca. 3 weeks earlier onset of growth and 20mmlarger sizes in bream during 1971–2006 underthe assumption of temperature limited growth in these eutrophic ecosystems.
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