An entity shall estimate an amount of variable consideration by using either of
the following methods, depending on which method the entity expects to better
predict the amount of consideration to which it will be entitled:
(a) The expected value—the expected value is the sum of
probability-weighted amounts in a range of possible consideration
amounts. An expected value may be an appropriate estimate of the
amount of variable consideration if an entity has a large number of
contracts with similar characteristics.
(b) The most likely amount—the most likely amount is the single most likely
amount in a range of possible consideration amounts (ie the single most
likely outcome of the contract). The most likely amount may be an
appropriate estimate of the amount of variable consideration if the
contract has only two possible outcomes (for example, an entity either
achieves a performance bonus or does not).