The assumptions-based models framework was applied by multiplying the values of the five model components. The forecast for the new software solution in the first year was $78 million ($3 billion x 65% x 20% x 25% x 80%). A risk analysis was then applied to develop a range forecast, whereby the original $78 million calculation represented the likely case. Discussions among the team laid out potential best-case and worst-case scenarios. It was agreed that market size would remain a constant. Core use had the potential torun as high as market share regularly fluctuated between 30% in good months and 10% in difficult months. Buying intent was seen as a variable falling between 20% and 30%. And market coverage, which was viewed as the most certain of the given assumptions, had the potential to increase to 95% based on distributor growth. Holding all values constant to the base case and changing only the assumption to the base case and changing only the assumption under consideration determined a worst case of $39 million in sales revenue; the optimistic case was calculates at $117 million (see Tabel 2).