Figure10 Model behavior for parameter sets representing countries in low and medium income categories
Similar trends obtained with the ten parameter-sets representing the low and medium countries of the sample also show that the system is parameter insensitive. Hence, these inferences can be extended beyond the analyzed set.
Since the magnitude of deterioration in the land quality index shown in the simulation does not take existing land management programs into account, it indicates only the volume of effort needed to overcome the deteriorating trends. Yet, the results of the simulations are borne out by the experience of many developing countries with large agricultural economies where fertile agricultural lands have already been extensively damaged due to water logging, salinity, and erosion of top-soil. Of course, some of these countries have already instituted extensive land management programs [Allauddin & Tisdell 1988].
The trends observed in historical data provide persuasive evidence that, over the course of agricultural development, increases in output have been obtained by consuming the resource environment, which has actually reduced food security. The projections made with the help of a model incorporating organic cause and effect relationships show that this process has gone far enough, so that it cannot be sustained for long into the future.
Generating Sustainable Agricultural Policies and Practices
A decision process cannot be divorced from its organizational context and it would be impossible to go beyond pontification on issues concerning a commons unless an institutional framework accepting responsibility for the commons is created. Sustainable agricultural technologies in the form of energy efficient crops and soil preserving cultivation methods are now widely available. There, however, exist neither an adequate awareness of the environmental issues, nor an institutional framework to take responsibility for the environment. Hence, sustainable technologies have a poor chance to become adopted. Following social and institutional policy directions must be pursued to create responsible attitudes towards environment leading to the adoption of sustainable technologies.