Recent research in international finance has found that sharp retrenchments of capital flows, known as sudden stops, depend not only on external factors, such as changes in expectations for advanced economy monetary policies, but also on internal domestic macroeconomic fundamentals (for example, see Forbes and Warnock 2012, and Edwards 2007). In particular, sudden stops in capital flows can reflect disappointments in a country’s domestic economic growth or concerns about its growing internal and external imbalances.
Fiscal and current account balances are commonly used measures to assess respectively a country’s internal and external balances. The fiscal balance is the difference between government revenues and expenditures. A negative fiscal balance, i.e., a fiscal deficit, is a measure of internal imbalance because it implies an increase in public borrowing. The current account balance includes a country’s trade balance, that is, its exports minus imports, plus international cash transfers, and earnings on foreign investments minus payments to foreign investors. A country that runs a current account deficit consumes and invests more than it produces, and accumulates a negative net foreign asset position with other countries.
Combinations of disappointing output growth and increases in external and internal imbalances may jeopardize the perception of global investors that a country will be able to honor its outstanding liabilities. This can generate a downward reassessment of expected investment returns in that country and fuel a retrenchment of capital inflows.
The onset of a sudden stop may itself cause difficulties that ratify investor expectations of lower returns. Thus, sudden stops may be costly for emerging market countries. They create pressure for countries to depreciate their currencies, which can boost inflation. Fighting inflation may require tighter monetary policy, which could further reduce growth. In addition, currency depreciations leave countries less able to service debts denominated in foreign currencies.