Originality/value – Application of the method proposed by Boaventura and Fischmann to the road freight transport industry generated distinct, but equally plausible scenarios. The method considered the key uncertainties as dichotomous variables. The scenarios were different since combinations of final states of the key uncertainties led to a different logic or rationale. The authors may state that this particular application contributed towards improvement of the method, as it tested the method’s logic when applied to a complex environment influenced by many stakeholders.