The past four years have been uneasy for business
and policy leaders alike in the 21-member Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Growth of the
region has settled at a pace of under 3% a year. That’s
a change. APEC economies thrived on the trade
winds when global trade used to reliably outpace
global GDP growth. They generate 70% of mining
production and represent 60% of the world’s top 15
in manufacturing value added. Yet this year, growth
in trade volumes could lag growth in global GDP.
This relative slowdown in trade occurs amid
uncertainty surrounding the future of established
trade flows. New shifts in political leadership—
most
notably in the presidential contest in the US—open
the possibility for fresh looks at current and future
trade policies. Given the significant public attention
on ‘mega’ regional trade projects, risks are rising that
these arrangements will not be implemented as fully
intended or, as now seems likely in the case of the
Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP), even at all.