This is a much kinder and gentler world where people are happy and salsa dance during afternoon siesta. External forces that might potential effect sovereign spreads include:
GDP growth—Efficiency increased due to reduced corruption and criminal activity plus improved education and social development softens the negative impact of accelerated growth.
Fiscal balance—The government may have less money because of increased spending (massive programs of school construction, etc.) but subsequent tax revenues may help to offset this investment.
Environmental & external debt—Improved environmental management leads to reduced costs.
Per capita income—Average incomes may increase as educational investment pays off.
Economic development—Helped by improved education and reduced corruption and criminal
activity.
Willingness to default—The importance of global relationships would make the government less
likely to choose to default on its debt.
In this world I would estimate that sovereign spread diminishes from its current 5.75% to a range of 1 to 4%.
The factors affecting inflation and the economy were already mentioned in the paragraph above - reduction in corruption, but an increase in government spending. The increase in demand for workers by the government would normally increase wages and inflation. But the reduction in corruption should remove inefficiency from the economy. I estimate that all of this could offset so that CEX stays at 0%, but let's use a range of -2.5% to +2.5%.
This means that in total the required return is 10.75% to 18.75%. However, on final review I am not comfortable with an overall required return estimate as low as 10.75%. That would mean that this country has less risk than the U.S. required return of 12.25%. Let's revise this to 12.25% to 18.75%, which is 12% to 19% after rounding.