The result of the AECM (9) indicates that while the coefficient of the ECT_ (—0.328) is significant at the 5% level (—2.36), the coefficient of the ECT+ (—0.045) is not (1.0). This output reveals that the transmission of milk prices is asymmetric with respect to the speed of adjustment, indicating that when producers’ prices decrease the speed of adjustment tends to be significantly faster, but when prices increase there are no statistically significant changes in the speed of adjustment. This result contrasts with the findings of Serra and Goodwin (2002), who found that the transmission of prices is reasonably symmetric in the Spanish dairy sector. However, it is consistent with findings from Kinnucan and Forker (1987) that confirmed the presence of asymmetric vertical price transmission in the บ.ร. dairy sector.
These results have serious welfare policy implications, since asymmetric transmission of milk prices implies that small dairy producers are not benefiting from price changes as much as they would under a more competitive scenario. If market price signals are not being efficiently transmitted to producers at the farm gate, it is unlikely that small producers will adopt the necessary mechanisms to respond adequately and quickly to changes in the market structure.