1.
4. Conclusions
Rice breeding for drought tolerance made recently some big advances, which have the potential to considerably change the ricebased rainfed lowland system. More drought tolerant rice varieties will have less stress-induced yield losses and increasingly replace traditional-type varieties with limited response to fertilizers. But a whole range of further interactions with crop management have the potential to bring additional benefits. Increased drought tolerance will reduce the production risk and reward higher input use, in good as well as in bad years. Higher fertilizer use can have a positive feedback on water-use efficiency and increase drought tolerance of the crop further. Labour shortages in many regions increase the incentive for adoption of labour-saving innovations, and especially direct seeding of rice could contribute to reduced yield and crop losses caused by drought. The development of seed drills for direct seeding of rice is advancing rapidly and will also allow to band basal fertilizer applications with the seed, which contributes to increased fertilizer use efficiency. Improvements in infrastructure and the growth in demand for a wider range of agricultural products have increased the returns to diversification. This will enable replacement of rice on drought-prone fields with more suitable upland crops, reducing the drought risk of the whole cropping system. The rapidly increasing mechanization in all rice environments also offers better land preparation which contributes to reduced water losses and weed pressure, especially important in drought environments. And where still possible, the spread of shallow tube wells will continue to transform rainfed systems, supported by water saving irrigation technologies. The task of research and policy makers will be to ensure the sustainable and safe use of existing ground water resources. However, we also outlined the tremendous diversity of rice-based rainfed lowlands, showing that crop management needs to be integrated with the relevant system and even specific field conditions. To achieve this, modern decision support tools tailored to specific regions with similar system characteristics are necessary. We conclude that combining the new varieties with established and new management options and opportunities to address drought stress can transform rice-based systems in rainfed lowlands, make them more productive, and increase and stabilize farmers’ income.