Imagine watching television with no channels, no remote control, perhaps not even a TV set. You
might catch the news on the bathroom mirror as you brush your teeth, and then check sports
scores after work on the family-room window. If a football game really captures your interest, you
could watch the action from any perspective you choose—the end zone, on the 50-yard line, or
even in the middle of the huddle. During the commercial break, the irresistible aroma of pizza
wafting from the TV might compel you to click on the logo and order a large double cheese right
from the screen.
It won’t be long before these scenarios become reality. The Cisco® Internet Business Solutions
Group (IBSG) recently interviewed more than 50 television experts—producers, engineers, and
scholars—to develop a picture of the future TV landscape.
These experts agree that almost every aspect of TV will be transformed: how we interact with the
TV; how we interact with one another while watching TV; our relationship with the content; the
nature of the TV screen itself; how content is produced, packaged, and paid for; and who makes
money from it.
Cisco IBSG believes the convergence of three key drivers—technology, consumer behavior,
and business models—will move us toward this “Jetsons” vision. New technology is rapidly
increasing the resolution of displays, and social networking technology is making it easy to share
and interact with content. Improved Internet connectivity and performance allow delivery of
high-definition video without interruption. As a result, consumers’ TV usage is changing: they
increasingly expect access to content anywhere, anytime. In terms of business models,
advertisers are scrambling to adjust as the DVR, Internet video, and other time-shifting options
pull the rug out from under traditional, linear TV advertising, causing many to question whether it
is still the most effective model for reaching consumers. Already, some content providers are
testing the waters by bypassing aggregators and delivering TV content straight to the
consumer.
After examining these drivers and holding in-depth discussions with TV experts, Cisco IBSG
developed 10 predictions for the future of television. Although we asked the experts for their
perspective on the television landscape 20 years from now, the current, blistering rate of
change could cause some of these predictions to become reality in the next five years.