SUMMARY
In this report, we update our valuation model for the stock price of
TRAPHACO J.S.C (TRA – HOSE) as well as updating the result of
1Q/2015 and forecasting the total result in 2015.
We keep our previous opinion, which is mentioned in our Initial
report, that 2014 was an entirely restructuring year of Traphaco in
switching their development from the overheating phase to the
sustainable phase. The decision of sacrificing the revenue and
profit growth in 1 year has proved its judiciousness through the
recruitment and impressive growth of revenue and profit from
4Q/2014 onwards.
For long-term view, we have highly appreciated the sustainable
business model of Traphaco. Based on conservative assumptions,
after updating the investment cash flow for the new factory at Van
Lam (Hung Yen province), we expect that TRA’s stock price will
reach VND102.000 per share in the end of 2015 using FCFF
valuation method. This target price is 26% higher than the current
market price, therefore, we call a BUY position for TRA’ stock in
mid-term and long-term. However, we notice that the liquidity of
TRA’s stock has been low with the 3 months average trading
volume at 2.581 share per trading day.
Net revenue of TRA in 1Q2015 reached VND461 bn (+58% yoy),
achieved 24,8% total annual plan at VND1.860 bn. NPAT (less
minority interest) in 1Q2015 reached VND39.6 bn (+107% yoy),
achieved 21% total annual plan at VND190 bn. Based on these
positive result, we expect that net revenue in 2015 will reach
VND1.895 bn and NPAT (less minority interest) will reach
VND187 bn, that will achieve 102% and 98% total annual plan,
respectively. EPS 2015 is expected to reach VND7.569 per
share.