Nonetheless, as described below, we do recognize several
pathways through which future economies and climate could
exacerbate or buffer the impacts of less available irrigation. For
example, larger population and increased income will tend to
increase cropland area, provided yields do not grow as fast as these
demands. Larger extensive and intensive margins of irrigation will
increase absolute water shortages (holding irrigation efficiency
constant). With more investment, water use efficiency might be
increased and storage supply augmented, and thus shortages
reduced; or irrigated area extended without efficiency and storage
improvements and thus shortages might be increased. Rising
temperatures and altered precipitation patterns from climate change
will likely increase the gap between dry land and irrigated yields in
many parts of the world. This will increase the value of irrigation and
therefore increase economic losses from irrigation stress.