in child deaths and 53% of the reduction in maternal
deaths would be due to fewer births (appendix). The
analysis therefore highlights the substantial contribution
from greater access to contraceptives for
effective family planning. The total fertility rate—in
2010 estimated at 2·7 children per woman—would
approach 2·0 for the 74 countries by 2035 (population
weighted average), with country variations from
1·6 to 3·1 (figure 3).