Abstract
In this article, I move beyond prior efforts to explore the relationship between the
risk of a coup and international conflict by considering alternatives that leaders can
utilize to strengthen their regimes. I offer two theoretical expectations. First,
I theorize that leaders lose the incentive and ability to use diversion when the
structural coup-proofing apparatus is strengthened. Second, I expect military
finances to lead to disparate behavior when considering regime type. Autocrats are
expected to use military funds to provide private incentives to the armed forces,
largely in the form of allowances. Democracies, in contrast, will be required to use
expenditures to promote the public good of national security due to the
transparency of their regimes. Autocrats are expected to lose the incentive to use
diversion as the financial endowment of their militaries increase, while democracies
will continue to show a diversionary trend due to their increased military
capabilities. The theory is tested using global data from 1962 to 2000, with the
findings strongly supporting the theory