2. Methods to anticipate trends and identify management
priorities in tropical coastal seas to 2050
Many researchers have used modeling to predict the near term
and longer term changes that may occur in response to climate
shifts mediated by anthropogenic stressors. Our intention was to
look specifically at how expected changes in the medium term will
affect the health and productivity of tropical coastal seas, and in
turn the effect on coastal communities and economies. Our
approach is threefold: (1) a spatial analysis of projected human
population growth in tropical coastal areas, (2) an attempt to
predict impacts of local and global stressors on resource availability and livelihoods in the tropics, including the indirect effects of
climate change on tropical nearshore fisheries, and (3) a
prioritization, based on both these analyses, suggesting where
and what kind of focused management is most urgently needed,
with an accompanying recommended framework for action.
2.1. Population projections and potential impacts on tropical coastal
seas
For spatial analyses of tropical coastal seas, we used
Environmental Systems Research Institute’s (ESRI) ArcGIS software
suite (v. 9.3.1), including ArcInfo, ArcCatalog and ArcMap; ESRI
ArcView (v. 3.2a); and QGIS (v. 1.80), defining the tropics as the