Should the hazards that come with transition be skirted, the democratic-pace thesis leads to a prediction that relation between China on the one hand and Japan and the United States on the other will remain pacific. Nonetheless, China’s burgeoning economic and military clout will have consequences. In twenty years, the PRC’s annual defense budget might exceed $200 billion, and its military forces will have high technology weapons. Its power will cause many small states to align themselves with Beijing like iron filings near a powerful magnet. There would remain the chance that China could use force against nondemocracies, but a China that navigates the transition to democracy without taking up the sword should on the whole improve the prospects for peace in the region and beyond.