Saudi political and macroeconomic stability has held firm amid a drastic drop in oil prices, a royal
succession and sectarian conflicts in the MENA region. As a matter of fact, despite lower oil prices, Saudi
real GDP growth reported 3.6% in 2014, since, contrary to other previous price slumps, the government
refuses to pare back oil production and instead prioritizes its market share. Growth was yet somehow
constrained by the departure of 1.4 million expatriates over the past 18 months. The effect of these
departures was evident in the second half of 2014, when both the construction and retail sectors slowed
markedly.
At the monetary level, inflation has fallen to 2.7% in 2014 and is expected to reach 2.0% in the current year
on the back of falling commodity prices and a strong US Dollar. Despite the tightening of the Saudisation
program, there is little evidence thus far that companies have passed on the resulting higher wage costs
to consumers. As the domestic inflation basket is dominated by the food and beverage segment, and
given the fact that domestic food prices have a high correlation with global food indices, moderate food
inflation is expected in Saudi Arabia going forward on the expectation of softening in global food prices.
Saudi Arabia is continuing to have a healthy foreign exchange reserve base. SAMA’s foreign exchange
assets reached US$ 732 billion at the end of 2014, according to the Central Bank. They slightly fell to US$
686 billion in April 2015. But at this level, SAMA’s reserves remain strong, equating to more than two and
a half years of import spending. The current account surplus and significant build-up of external assets
have provided an ample cushion to government finances from external shocks. Central government debt
decreased in 2014, with official estimate standing at US$ 11.8 billion, the equivalent of 1.6% of GDP. Such
a low debt level provides significant fiscal flexibility should oil prices remain at or near current levels for
the next few years.
The Saudi Riyal’s peg to the US Dollar, which is unlikely to be changed, means that the main policy rate
must roughly track movements in US interest rates, even though this can lead to economic distortions.
In particular, the combination of low interest rates and persistent fiscal stimulus has raised concerns over
potential asset bubbles, notably in the property market, with real estate lending by banks increasing by
31% in 2014.
Banking activity continues to be strong, coupled with good financial soundness indicators. Deposits grew
by 12.4% in 2014 (3.2% in the first four months of 2015), while loans increased by 11.8% over the year
(2.9% in the first four months of 2015). At the level of asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to
outstanding loans declined further to 1.1% at end-2014, although this also reflects strong growth in the
denominator. Notwithstanding a significantly high capital adequacy, which stands at circa 18% in 2014,
though primary liquidity is at a six-year low of 16.6% of deposits. In parallel, banking sector profitability
has been buoyant, with the return on equity estimated at about 15% in 2014.