In one sense, privatization can hardly decrease access; the provincial banks have
already been moribund for a long time. For example, the Banco de Salta made no loans
in the year before its sale, and 98 percent of its portfolio was delinquent. Likewise, 60
percent of the portfolio of the provincial bank of Santa Fe was in default. In the short
term, the rural poor probably have little access to lose from privatization. In the long
term, privatization may increase access if increased confidence deepens the financial
system and if competition pushes banks downmarket in search of new niches.