confronted with water stress are more likely to cut back irrigated
acreage and switch production to rainfed areas if and when
precipitation is sufficient for crops to grow. Given the fact that
irrigated land is generally more productive, farmers using less
irrigation will need more land to produce the same amount of output.
If the yield differential is large enough, even producing less would
need more acreage. Within our framework, this additional rainfed
crop area must be converted from either forest or pasture land. Less
pasture land leads to higher grazing costs. This imposes pressure on
livestock supply, which - when combined with climbing demand for
meat – could further drive up prices of livestock products. In addition,
forests and grazing land are generally more carbon-rich than
cropland (Plevin et al., 2011). That means land use change is likely
to create more carbon emissions in regions where the expansion of
irrigated area is constrained (Taheripour et al., 2013b).