It turned out to be Fed Ex. Stupid UPAA tracking number is useless. FedEx had no idea what I was on about.
The only way I was able to get an accurate tracking number was by going to customer support and lodging an "item not received". I communicated with the seller as he wanted to know how to resolve it to. He actually suggested I take those steps. As soon as I lodged that, A FedEx tracking number magically appeared (provided by ebay, not the seller).