were 3.0 percent in the United States and 0.5 percent in
Japan, the position would yield, or “carry,” an annual rate of
2.5 percent. If the trader had on a position of long five standard
lots, or $500,000, he would collect 2.5 percent annually
on the $500,000 even if he had only $10,000 in his account.
That may sound like a lot of money at first, but consider the
risk that individual would be incurring to capture that $35 a
day in interest. By holding a $500,000 position in a $10,000
account, the trader could lose everything if USDJPY moved
just 2 percent. In today’s marketplace a 2 percent move in a
single day for a currency pair is not unreasonable. In a much
larger account, in a healthy economic climate, and with the
account managed by professionals, this arbitrage strategy
makes a lot of sense. Professional traders understand this and
have taken advantage of interest rate differentials in the
global marketplace during times of economic expansion. For
an individual with little experience and a small account, the
strategy is inadvisable and dangerous.
The last time the carry trade was working, from mid-2005
to mid-2007, it was working very well. Prices of the higheryielding
currencies raced higher while prices of the loweryielding
currencies stood still or even moved lower. What this
meant was not only that buyers, or “longs,” in the carry trade
were capturing the interest on their positions but that they
were reaping the traders’ reward as their positions increased
in value. Individuals with little experience were accumulating
larger and larger long positions and calling themselves
traders. You probably can guess how this ended. Prices plummeted
violently at the beginning of 2008 as speculative
monies vanished when stock and real estate markets fell
Mastering the Currency Market
26