Growth potential for both hub-and-spoke and point-topoint
From our point of view, the growth rates forecast for air transport
offer sufficient upside potential for both concepts in the medium to
long run. Arguments for the hub-and-spoke strategy continue to gain
underpinning from the cost advantages derived from bundling traffic
flows and in this context achieving better aircraft capacity utilisation
via code sharing. The economies of scale achieved through the
deployment of large aircraft also play a role. The upcoming
commissioning of the Airbus A380 will represent a quantum leap in
efficiency. According to information from Airbus, the operating costs
per seat will be 15-20% lower than those of the most modern
comparable model offered by Boeing (B 747-400) at present.
However, airports that will be served by the A380 will have to invest
in their infrastructure, or have done so already.
The respectable number of orders for this aircraft indicate that many
of the world’s large, financially healthy airlines will continue to rely
on the hub-and-spoke strategy in future. Further orders for the A380
are to be expected at the latest when the launch customers have
successfully integrated the jet into their scheduled services. After
years of sustained scepticism about the prospects for success of
such superjumbos, Boeing has also announced the construction of a
modernised jumbo jet (Boeing 747-8) with increased seating
capacity. Further synergy effects related to the hub-and-spoke
strategy pertain to the common use of ground staff and infrastructure.
Announcements of massive investments in expansion at
the world’s major airports or gigantic new projects as in Dubai are
further supply-side signals in favour of the hub strategy.