5.3 Techniques for Short-term Forecasting
Concurrent with the development of dynamic modelling in econometrics there was also
a resurgence of interest in time-series methods, used primarily in short-term business
forecasting. The dominant work in this field was that of Box and Jenkins (1970), who,building on the pioneering works of Yule (1921, 1926), Slutsky (1927), Wold (1938),
Whittle (1963) and others, proposed computationally manageable and asymptotically
efficient methods for the estimation and forecasting of univariate autoregressive-moving
average (ARMA) processes. Time-series models provided an important and relatively
simple benchmark for the evaluation of the forecasting accuracy of econometric models,
and further highlighted the significance of dynamic specification in the construction of
time-series econometric models. Initially univariate time-series models were viewed as
mechanical ‘black box’ models with little or no basis in economic theory.
5.3 Techniques for Short-term ForecastingConcurrent with the development of dynamic modelling in econometrics there was alsoa resurgence of interest in time-series methods, used primarily in short-term businessforecasting. The dominant work in this field was that of Box and Jenkins (1970), who,building on the pioneering works of Yule (1921, 1926), Slutsky (1927), Wold (1938),Whittle (1963) and others, proposed computationally manageable and asymptoticallyefficient methods for the estimation and forecasting of univariate autoregressive-movingaverage (ARMA) processes. Time-series models provided an important and relativelysimple benchmark for the evaluation of the forecasting accuracy of econometric models,and further highlighted the significance of dynamic specification in the construction oftime-series econometric models. Initially univariate time-series models were viewed asmechanical ‘black box’ models with little or no basis in economic theory.
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