If the forecasted equity market return y~s,tþ1 is
greater than zero, it generates a signal to go long in
the equity market; i.e. to buy an equity index-related
financial product. Otherwise, it signals that the
investor should short her position in the market; i.e.
to sell the equity index short. Similar trading rules
have been used in various studies on technical trading
(for review, see Park and Irwin, 2007). This strategy
can be easily implemented using index futures or
another instrument tracking the index such as an
Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). Transaction costs are
assumed to be 0.1%, which is consistent with the
literature on technical trading. The returns are
compared with the returns acquired by holding an
index-related product over the whole period.