3) Let’s examine how the goals of the Fed influence its response to shocks. Suppose Fed
A cares only about keeping the price level stable, and Fed B cares only about keeping output and employment at their natural levels. Explain how each Fed would respond to
a) An exogenous decrease in the velocity of money.
An exogenous decrease in the velocity of money causes the aggregate demand curve to shift downward. In the short run, prices are fixed, so output falls.
If the Fed wants to keep output and employment at their natural-rate levels, it must increase aggregate demand to offset the decrease in velocity. By increasing the money supply, the Fed can shift the aggregate demand curve upward, restoring the economy to its original equilibrium point. Both the price level and output would remain constant.
If the Fed wants to keep prices stable, then it wants to avoid the long-run adjustment to a lower price level. Therefore, it should do precisely what Fed B does, and increase the money supply to shift the aggregate demand curve upward, again restoring the original equilibrium point.
b) An exogenous increase in the price of oil.
An exogenous increase in the price of oil is an adverse supply shock that causes the short-run aggregate supply curve to shift upward.
If the Fed cares about keeping output and employment at their natural-rate levels, then it should increase aggregate demand by increasing the money supply. This policy response shifts the aggregate demand curve rightward. In this case, the economy immediately reaches a new equilibrium – the price level is permanently higher, but there is no loss in output associated with the adverse supply shock.
If the Fed cares about keeping prices stable, then there is no policy response it can implement. In the short run, the price level stays at the higher level. The Fed must simply wait, holding aggregate demand constant. Eventually, prices fall to restore full employment at the old price level. But the cost of this process is a prolonged recession.