Forecasts suggest that the number of computing devices in use will grow at 38% per year[3] and the average complexity of each device is increasing.[3] Currently, this volume and complexity is managed by highly skilled humans; but the demand for skilled IT personnel is already outstripping supply, with labour costs exceeding equipment costs by a ratio of up to 18:1.[4] Computing systems have brought great benefits of speed and automation but there is now an overwhelming economic need to automate their maintenance.
In a 2003 IEEE Computer Magazine article,[5] Kephart and Chess warn that the dream of interconnectivity of computing systems and devices could become the “nightmare of pervasive computing” in which architects are unable to anticipate, design and maintain the complexity of interactions. They state the essence of autonomic computing is system self-management, freeing administrators from low-level task management while delivering better system behavior.
A general problem of modern distributed computing systems is that their complexity, and in particular the complexity of their management, is becoming a significant limiting factor in their further development. Large companies and institutions are employing large-scale computer networks for communication and computation. The distributed applications running on these computer networks are diverse and deal with many tasks, ranging from internal control processes to presenting web content to customer support.
Additionally, mobile computing is pervading these networks at an increasing speed: employees need to communicate with their companies while they are not in their office. They do so by using laptops, personal digital assistants, or mobile phones with diverse forms of wireless technologies to access their companies' data.
This creates an enormous complexity in the overall computer network which is hard to control manually by human operators. Manual control is time-consuming, expensive, and error-prone. The manual effort needed to control a growing networked computer-system tends to increase very quickly.
80% of such problems in infrastructure happen at the client specific application and database layer.[citation needed] Most 'autonomic' service providers[who?] guarantee only up to the basic plumbing layer (power, hardware, operating system, network and basic database parameters).