But we expect only moderate impact
Still, with only 24.4% market share, we doubt if SFIs have the capacity to accommodate massive inflows from commercial banks and foreign bank branches (Figure 24). As shown in Figure 25, the three leading SFIs ñ Government Savings Bank (GSB, Not listed), Government Housing Bank (GHB, Not listed) and Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperation (BAAC, Not listed) ñ command 96% of the total deposit at SFIs. Of the three, only GSB has the real capacity to gain market share from the commercial banking system, in our view. GSB has raised its deposit market share from 42% in 2005 to 48% by 2010, while GHB and BAAC have seen their shares falling from 27% and 31% to 22% and 30%, respectively (Figure 26). We thus believe that among SFIs, only GSB pose the real threat to commercial banks.