Assuming a.95 probability of approval at each agreement point,Pressman and Wildavsky calculated that the probability of a particular proposal running this bureaucratic gauntlet and actually being implemented is .000395 (1973, 106-107).In other words, when dealing with a dispersed decision-making system, one's chances of getting anything done are low-often astonishingly low- even when most people want to do it. Even if the odds are overcome,getting anything done is going to take a long time. Pressman and Wildavaky estimated that each of those seventy agreements would require one to six weeks to secure, which resulted in an estimate that the Oakland project would face four-and-a-half years' worth of delays. Their estimate proved to be fairly accurate (1973, 106-107).
Assuming a.95 probability of approval at each agreement point,Pressman and Wildavsky calculated that the probability of a particular proposal running this bureaucratic gauntlet and actually being implemented is .000395 (1973, 106-107).In other words, when dealing with a dispersed decision-making system, one's chances of getting anything done are low-often astonishingly low- even when most people want to do it. Even if the odds are overcome,getting anything done is going to take a long time. Pressman and Wildavaky estimated that each of those seventy agreements would require one to six weeks to secure, which resulted in an estimate that the Oakland project would face four-and-a-half years' worth of delays. Their estimate proved to be fairly accurate (1973, 106-107).
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