We should first begin in an easily comprehensible matter: Aung San Suu Kyi. The question of whether she will become President after the next general election is always a hot topic in Burmese politics. Aung San Suu Kyi has expressed her ambition to be President, and it seems that the U.S. government and the EU, which expressed their support for her during her house arrest, are eagerly waiting for this to happen. Yet it will not be simple for this to come about. Because her son has British citizenship, Aung San Suu Kyi does not meet the constitutional requirements to become President (Clause 59 (f)), so under the present circumstances she cannot legally assume this office. Aung San Suu Kyi, who was born in 1945, does not necessarily have a lot of time remaining, so she is likely to work on the President and ruling party to amend the Constitution up until the last minute, but these partners have little desire to amend the relevant clause and the likelihood is low that Aung San Suu Kyi will become President soon as a result of the 2015 general election.
This is where the problems begin. Even if Aung San Suu Kyi cannot become President, there is no doubt that if the situation remains as it currently stands, her party, the NLD, will win a big share of the vote. The NLD and other political parties have become more active due to the greater freedoms put in place since the transition to “civilian” rule. According to the party’s leadership, there are presently over 2 million party members. This year also marks the 100th birthday of General Aung San, Aung San Suu Kyi’s father and a national hero for his leadership in Myanmar’s independence movement. The party is organizing events for almost every month and is proceeding with the preparations for the election campaign late this year. Since there is a lack of reliable public opinion polls in Myanmar, it is difficult to accurately gauge the political party approval ratings, but a majority of the 45 contested seats in the April 2012 by-elections—43 seats—were taken by the NLD in a landslide victory. Taking that into consideration, the people’s support for the NLD is solid. We may think that a politician’s popularity is a tenuous thing, but Aung San Suu Kyi has maintained her popularity after surviving the long years of negative campaigning by the junta, and, barring any major event, that popularity is not likely to fade. Aung San Suu Kyi’s activates since being elected a parliament member in April 2012 have not been without criticism, but that has not had any large effect on her level of support. If the election is free and fair, then the NLD, boosted by Aung San Suu Kyi’s popularity, is highly likely to become the top party.
เราควรเริ่มต้นในเรื่องง่าย ๆ comprehensible: อองซานซูจี คำถามที่ว่าเธอจะเป็นประธานหลังจากการเลือกตั้งทั่วไปต่อไปเป็นหัวข้อที่น่าสนใจในเมืองพม่า อองซานซูจีได้แสดงความใฝ่ฝันของเธอเป็น ประธาน และดูเหมือนว่า รัฐบาลสหรัฐอเมริกาและยุโรป ซึ่งแสดงความสนับสนุนเธอในระหว่างการจับกุมบ้านเธอ กระหายรอนี้เกิดขึ้น แต่ มันจะไม่ได้เรื่องนี้มา เนื่องจากลูกชายของเธอมีสัญชาติอังกฤษ อองซานซูจีไม่ตรงกับความต้องการรัฐธรรมนูญเป็น ประธาน (ส่วน 59 (f)), ดังนั้นในสถานการณ์ปัจจุบัน เธอไม่ตามกฎหมายถือว่าสำนักงานนี้ อองซานซูจี ที่เกิดในปีค.ศ. 1945 ไม่จำเป็นต้องมีเวลาที่เหลืออยู่ ดังนั้นเธอจะทำงานกับประธานและฝ่ายปกครองเพื่อแก้ไขรัฐธรรมนูญจนถึงนาทีสุดท้าย แต่คู่ค้าเหล่านี้มีความปรารถนาน้อยแก้ไขประโยคที่เกี่ยวข้อง และโอกาสมีน้อยที่อองซานซูจีจะกลายเป็น ประธานาธิบดีเร็ว ๆ นี้เป็นผลมาจากการเลือกตั้งทั่วไป 2015This is where the problems begin. Even if Aung San Suu Kyi cannot become President, there is no doubt that if the situation remains as it currently stands, her party, the NLD, will win a big share of the vote. The NLD and other political parties have become more active due to the greater freedoms put in place since the transition to “civilian” rule. According to the party’s leadership, there are presently over 2 million party members. This year also marks the 100th birthday of General Aung San, Aung San Suu Kyi’s father and a national hero for his leadership in Myanmar’s independence movement. The party is organizing events for almost every month and is proceeding with the preparations for the election campaign late this year. Since there is a lack of reliable public opinion polls in Myanmar, it is difficult to accurately gauge the political party approval ratings, but a majority of the 45 contested seats in the April 2012 by-elections—43 seats—were taken by the NLD in a landslide victory. Taking that into consideration, the people’s support for the NLD is solid. We may think that a politician’s popularity is a tenuous thing, but Aung San Suu Kyi has maintained her popularity after surviving the long years of negative campaigning by the junta, and, barring any major event, that popularity is not likely to fade. Aung San Suu Kyi’s activates since being elected a parliament member in April 2012 have not been without criticism, but that has not had any large effect on her level of support. If the election is free and fair, then the NLD, boosted by Aung San Suu Kyi’s popularity, is highly likely to become the top party.
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