well. Typically it’s not enough to say, “We expect this program to have a very positive effect on reducing unwanted teenage pregnancies.” Instead, you ‘d want to say, “we expect this program to reduce by one-hundred to three-hundred the number of unwanted teenage pregnancies per year in this community over the next five years.”
The Optimism Problem
Great ventures require optimism. Because even small ventures by government can affect so many lives, they are in their own way “great.” Hence, a little optimism is beneficial. But how do you guard against excessive optimism?