In these notes I have argued that many of the main macroeconomic events of the last two decades, both for developing and developed economies, can be understood by recognizing a powerful, yet largely ignored ingredient in the analysis of these events: the world seems to have a severe shortage of assets.
This ingredient has positive and normative implications. Among the former, emerging market boom-bust cycles, global imbalances, low real interest rates, deflationary episodes, recurrent bubbles, and financial panics, all follow naturally from this view.
As for policy, perhaps the main advice is the importance of recognizing the source of these symptoms and the fact that some of them are simply the market’s attempt to fill the asset gap. In this context, knee-jerk reactions to the emergence of speculative bubbles and global imbalances can be
counterproductive.
In these notes I have argued that many of the main macroeconomic events of the last two decades, both for developing and developed economies, can be understood by recognizing a powerful, yet largely ignored ingredient in the analysis of these events: the world seems to have a severe shortage of assets.This ingredient has positive and normative implications. Among the former, emerging market boom-bust cycles, global imbalances, low real interest rates, deflationary episodes, recurrent bubbles, and financial panics, all follow naturally from this view.As for policy, perhaps the main advice is the importance of recognizing the source of these symptoms and the fact that some of them are simply the market’s attempt to fill the asset gap. In this context, knee-jerk reactions to the emergence of speculative bubbles and global imbalances can becounterproductive.
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