It should be pointed out that the data on the price movements of cassava and gasoline used for the analysis in this study are from the years 2002–2005, a relatively short period of only 4 years. Hence, the unit costs of ethanol from cassava presented here are valid only for this specific time interval. Any generalization of the conclusion of this study to other time interval should be done with great caution because both the price of cassava and gasoline could and are expected to deviate significantly from the prices in the years 2002–2005, not necessarily in the same direction, resulting in varying relative prices of ethanol from cassava and gasoline which could cause one to reach a different conclusion. Nevertheless, a framework and means for the analysis has been laid out through formulated equations allowing one to adjust both fixed and variable parameters when attempting to analyze with a significantly different data set belonging to a different time interval. This study has uncovered some interesting aspects concerning the characteristic of the production cost structure for a 150,000 l/day ethanol plant in that the preponderant parameter affecting the unit cost of ethanol from cassava is the feedstock itself and the specific conditions under which ethanol form cassava could compete with gasoline in Thailand could also be delineated.
Since 95-octane gasoline, a type of refined petroleum products derived from imported crude oil, is currently targeted by the Thai Government for complete phasing out to be replaced by indigenous bio-ethanol blended gasoline. Therefore, the price of 95-octane gasoline was chosen for comparative competitiveness with the cost of ethanol from cassava during the time period of this study. As shown in Fig. 4, by comparing the concurrent prices of both during the years 2002–2005, we can discuss and draw the following conclusions:
It should be pointed out that the data on the price movements of cassava and gasoline used for the analysis in this study are from the years 2002–2005, a relatively short period of only 4 years. Hence, the unit costs of ethanol from cassava presented here are valid only for this specific time interval. Any generalization of the conclusion of this study to other time interval should be done with great caution because both the price of cassava and gasoline could and are expected to deviate significantly from the prices in the years 2002–2005, not necessarily in the same direction, resulting in varying relative prices of ethanol from cassava and gasoline which could cause one to reach a different conclusion. Nevertheless, a framework and means for the analysis has been laid out through formulated equations allowing one to adjust both fixed and variable parameters when attempting to analyze with a significantly different data set belonging to a different time interval. This study has uncovered some interesting aspects concerning the characteristic of the production cost structure for a 150,000 l/day ethanol plant in that the preponderant parameter affecting the unit cost of ethanol from cassava is the feedstock itself and the specific conditions under which ethanol form cassava could compete with gasoline in Thailand could also be delineated.
Since 95-octane gasoline, a type of refined petroleum products derived from imported crude oil, is currently targeted by the Thai Government for complete phasing out to be replaced by indigenous bio-ethanol blended gasoline. Therefore, the price of 95-octane gasoline was chosen for comparative competitiveness with the cost of ethanol from cassava during the time period of this study. As shown in Fig. 4, by comparing the concurrent prices of both during the years 2002–2005, we can discuss and draw the following conclusions:
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