Between 1990 and 2008, container
traffic
has grown from 28.7 million TEU to 152.0 million
TEU, an increase by about 430%. This corresponds to an average annual compound growth of
9.5%. In the same period, container
throughput
went from 88 million to 530 million TEU, an
increase of 500%, equivalent to an average annual compound growth of 10.5%. Consequently,
the ratio of container traffic over container throughput was around 3.5 in 2008, whereas this
ratio stood at 3.0 in 1990. The surge of botla container traffic and throughput is linked with the
growth of international trade in addition to the adoption of containerization as privileged
vector for maritime shipping and inland transportation. So far, the growth of container
throughput behaves according to the standard technological diffusion (or product life cycle)
curve, which is “S” shaped. Temptation has been great for forecasters to extrapolate such
exponential growth for the next fifteen to twenty years resulting in phenomenal throughput
levels. Unfortunately, too many forecasts are exclusively developed from a top-down
perspective, too few consider the physical cargo flows that external trade will be able to
generate and the inevitable shifts in cargo types, routes and packaging. This also means that a
small drop in traffic can result in a significant drop in throughput