Authorities recognize that because financial institutions are in the process of
adapting their strategies and positioning to the new supervisory regime and
competition outlook, the initiation and details of Phase 2 policies must reflect
environmental realities in addition to empirical results and impact analysis of Phase 1
reforms.
Detailed research studies presented at the annual Bank of Thailand’s
Symposium in August 2005 highlighted several macroeconomic challenges that will
need to be addressed by all stakeholders especially those in the financial sector. These
include the decline in household savings levels and changes in the macroeconomic
structure and financial system infrastructure. The latter two are significant to the
financial sector since both require financial institutions to adapt and maintain strategic
vigilance to ensure smooth transition.
The macroeconomic challenges for financial institutions involve the interest
rate up-cycle and potential adverse consequences from the unwinding of global
imbalances that may exacerbate existing foreign exchange mismatches among SMEs.
At the same time, financial institutions are presented with new business opportunities
arising from large-scale government infrastructure projects and demographic changes
namely the increase in number of people entering family age and hence the expansion
of potential borrower base.
Financial landscape adjustments on the other hand naturally encompass the
heightened competition from the FSMP, capital market, and non-bank financial
intermediaries, and also prudential evolutions from the introduction of Deposit
Insurance Act, Basel II Capital Accord in International Accounting Standard 39.
Because derivatives trading in Thailand is still minimal relative to more developed
markets, the implementation of Basel II with its refined sensitivity to key risks faced
by deposit-taking financial institutions, and Deposit Insurance Act will pose dramatic
impact on the Thai financial system. Thus in this era of supervisory and industry
reform, domestic and foreign deposit-taking financial institutions will need to find
competitive niches either domestically and regionally while at the same time
managing risk exposures using more sophisticated tools.
The past and present has shown that the global financial landscape is one
characterized by rapid change and dangerous pitfalls. Authorities therefore have to be
progressive and flexible enough to adapt the supervisory regime to new developments
pertinent to Thailand. As such, the final details of the FSMP’s subsequent phase will