Following a detailed analysis, oEF came to the conclusion that a short, decisive war in Iraq might not be so detrimental to Scottish tourism. Per ceived as safe, the country would benefit from travelers from the rest of the United Kingdom, who might prefer to take short breaks in Scotland rather than abroad. the actual situation would be complex, and there would be many offsetting factors. If the Global Northern Ireland scenario emerged, the United Kingdom would enter a recession, and some of the money that would have been spent on travel would dry up. Still, having the scenarios in hand gave the tourism authorities a certain sense of comfort that they were more in control, and when the war did break out, there was no sense of panic but rather a cool-headed responsive- ness that prevalled. Ajoint action group was established, and this team successfully coordinated the response of Scottish tourism to what was going on, particularly with regard to getting the communication right with the public and other industry players. The focus was on providing useful information rather than passing on one message after another of doom and gloom the kind of communication that was starting to appear everywhere. At the same time, they also set up a process to monitor booking patterns and consumer and business confidence, so they would have their finger on the pulse of any changes that would affect the sector