This market is “the closest to the consumer”
and, by its nature, the demand is strongly
driven by the GDP developments in the
world, demographic developments and, not
least, changes in per capita income in regions
and large countries. Underpinning this trade
is the development of goods containerisation.
We have seen tremendous developments in
this area over the past 30 years.
The current situation is not very positive, with
an imbalance between supply and demand.
Ships on order represent approximately 25%
of the existing container fleet. The situation
is more positive for general cargo, as that
fleet is shrinking somewhat in size. Container
vessels are furthermore taking market shares
from reefers and roll-on/roll-off vessels. The
container feeder vessel market is experiencing
competition in parts of the world, in
Europe, in particular, and is losing out to the
direct service offers of larger container vessels
with lower bunkering costs per unit.
Container business developments are influenced
by ongoing changes in trade patterns,
some of which can be regarded as emerging
long-term trends. We see a slowdown in the
growth of the mainline trades, Asia-North
America and Asia-Europe, and an increase in
the Europe-Middle East, Middle East-Asia and
South America-Africa-Asia trade routes.
Mainline trades are growing at approximately
5% per annum whereas non-mainline trades
are growing at an annual rate of 10% or
more. The growth in Inter-Asia and Inter-
China trade is even stronger.
China is currently building a self-sustaining
supply chain between itself and developing
nation trade partners in order to protect its
supply and investments abroad. This will
bring both structural changes to the container
(and dry bulk) industries and the
demand for vessels. It is likely that this is the
trend that will accelerate most quickly over
the next decade.