WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES1. Hassan Z. Harraz hharraz2006@yahoo.com 2014- 2015 This material is intended for use in lectures, presentations and as handouts to students, and is provided in Power point format so as to allow customization for the individual needs of course instructors. Permission of the author and publisher is required for any other usage. Please see hharraz2006@yahoo.com for contact details. Topic 5: WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz Presentation2. Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz Presentation History of Use Petro means rock Oleum means oil • 1000 A.D. • Arab scientists discovered distillation and were able to make kerosene. This was lost after the 12th century! • Rediscovered by a Canadian geologist called Abraham Gesner in 1852 1858: first oil drilled in Canada 1859: Edwin Drake..! Who is he? He was the first person in the U.S. to drill for oil Where? Titusville, Pennsylvania Initial cost: $20 per barrel, within three years dropped to 10 cents Now why do we measure oil in barrels? November 22, 2015 23. Types of Reservoirs Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 34. WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz Presentation November 22, 2015 4 Conventional oil is generally easy to obtain, transport, and process. Conventional oil reserves are extracted using their inherent pressure, pumps, flooding or injection of water or gas. Approximately 95% of all oil production comes from conventional oil reserves. Conventional oil is either light or heavy. Heavy refers to oil with a thick consistency that does not flow easily. Light oil can flow naturally to the surface or is extracted from the ground using pump jacks. Pump jacks are also used to remove heavy oil from the ground. Conventional oil is produced on land and offshore. There are two umbrella terms given to petroleum: Conventional oil and Unconventional oil.5. Global discovered resource and yet-to-find Source: IHS, EIA and CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers) for onshore North America data Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 56. N.America 360 bnbl S.America 200 bnbl FSU 330 bnbl MidEast 810 bnbl AsiaPacific 130 bnblAfrica 190 bnbl Europe 80 bnbl World 2100 bnbl 2 Distribution, Maturity of Conventional Oil • Most regions of the world are either at or past the mid-point of depletion • Middle East (and FSU and Africa) have produced <50% of their known resource Produced Reserves Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 67. WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 7 The estimated world proved reserves of crude petroleum were 1.6 billion barrels (As of January 2013). OPEC currently accounts for 73.6% of total world oil reserves. Venezuela with its heavy, sour crude holds the largest share of the world's petroleum reserves at 18% of the total, as a result of recent reserves identified in this country. Other countries with the biggest crude oil reserves are Saudi Arabia (16.2%), Canada (10.6%), Iran (9.4%) and Iraq (9.6%). “After more than 100 years of exploration in > 75% of the potential oil bearing sedimentary areas, including all of the largest and most accessible ones, we have found only 7 major provinces that contain more oil than the world used in a single year in the peak consumption years of the 1970’s.” On a regional basis, the Middle East accounts for nearly 48% of the world's reserves. Central and South America is second with 20%, following recent reserves identified in Brazil and Venezuela, and North America is third with 13% (Figure 1). Central and S. America is mostly Venezuela Eurasia is mostly Russia Africa is mostly Libya and Nigeria8. Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 8 The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 70% of the world’s remaining oil reserves consist of heavy, high sulfur crude. Moreover, there is a common tendency in all big discoveries found in the last 30 years. The crude from these new oil fields tends to be heavy, difficult to extract, with high sulfur content. One of the reasons of crude oil quality deterioration is depletion of production from conventional, commonly sweet reservoirs. This trend can be seen by looking at the history of crude oil production, which is now extending over more than 150 years : Virtually all the world's largest oil fields were all discovered more than 50 years ago; Since the 1960s, annual oil discoveries tend to decrease; Since 1980, annual consumption has exceeded annual new discoveries; Till this day more than 47,500 oil fields have been found, but the 400 largest Oil fields (1%) contain more than 75% of all oil ever discovered. World Oil Reserves 2014 Total 1201.332 billion barrels9. Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 9 When it comes to natural gas proved reserves the Middle East and Europe & Eurasia region account for 75% of whole world’s reserves (Figure 2). In fact, 40% of the world’s natural or associated gas reserves currently identified as remaining to be produced, representing over 2600 trillion cubic feet (tcf), are sour, with both H2S and CO2 present most of the time. Among these sour reserves, >350 tcf contain H2S in excess of 10%, and almost 700 tcf contain over 10% CO2 .10. 2) ESTIMATED RESERVES BY COUNTRY Trends in proved oil reserves in top five countries, 1980-2013 (date from US Energy Information Administration) Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 10 Graph of OPEC reported reserves showing jumps in stated reserves without associated discoveries, as well as the lack of depletion despite yearly production.
11. Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 11
12. Summary of Proven Reserve Data as of 2012 Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 12 — Country Reserves Production Reserve/ Production Ratio* (years) (109bbl) (109m3) (106bbl/d) (103m3/d) 1 Venezuela 296.5 47.14 2.1 330 387 2 Saudi Arabia 265.4 42.20 8.9 1,410 82 3 Canada 175 27.8 2.7 430 178 4 Iran 151.2 24.04 4.1 650 101 5 Iraq 143.1 22.75 2.4 380 163 6 Kuwait 101.5 16.14 2.3 370 121 7 United Arab Emirates 97.8 15.55 2.4 380 112 8 Russia 80 13 10 1,600 22 9 Libya 47 7.5 1.7 270 76 10 Nigeria 37 5.9 2.5 400 41 11 Kazakhstan 30 4.8 1.5 240 55 12 Qatar 25.41 4.040 1.1 170 63 13 China 25.4 4.04 4.1 650 17 14 United States 25.4 4.0 7 1,100 10 15 Angola 13.5 2.15 1.9 300 19 16 Algeria 13.42 2.134 1.7 270 22 17 Brazil 13.2 2.10 2.1 330 17 Total of top seventeen reserves 1,324 210.5 56.7 9,010 64 Notes: Reserve to Production ratio(in years), calculated as reserves / annual production. (from above)
13. 2.1) OPEC Countries Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 13 • Based on data from OPEC at the beginning of 2013 the highest proved oil reserves including unconventional oil deposits are in Venezuela (20% of global reserves),Saudi Arabia (18% of global reserves), Canada (13% of global reserves), and Iran (9%). • Since a system of country production quotas was introduced in the 1980s, partly based on reserves levels, there have been dramatic increases in reported reserves among OPEC producers. In 1983, Kuwait increased its proven reserves from 67Gbbl (10.7×109 m3) to 92Gbbl (14.6×109 m3). In 1985–1986, the UAE almost tripled its reserves from 33Gbbl (5.2×109 m3) to 97Gbbl (15.4×109 m3). Saudi Arabia raised its reported reserve number in 1988 by 50%. In 2001–2002, Iran raised its proven reserves by some 30% to 130Gbbl (21×109m3), which advanced it to second place in reserves and ahead of Iraq. Iran denied accusations of a political motive behind the readjustment, attributing the increase instead to a combination of new discoveries and improved recovery. No details were offered of how any of the upgrades were arrived at.
14. Main Producers - OPEC en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Opec_Organization_of_the_Petroleum_Exporting_Countries_countries.PNG • Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a group of 13 countries that produce 36% of the world’s oil, or 32 million barrels of oil per day. • The biggest producer is Saudi Arabia, but Iran, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Venezuela are also major suppliers Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz Presentation November 22, 2015 14
15. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Created in 1960 Original Member Countries: Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela Other members Qatar, Indonesia, Socialist Peoples Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Angola, Gabon Objective statement: OPEC's objective is to co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers; an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations; and a fair return on capital to those investing in the industry. Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz Presentation November 22, 2015 15
16. Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 16 • Total reserves in many OPEC countries hardly changed in the 1990s.Official reserves in Kuwait, for example, were unchanged at 96.5Gbbl (15.34×109 m3) (including its share of the Neutral Zone) from 1991 to 2002, even though the country produced more than 8Gbbl (1.3×109 m3) and did not make any important new discoveries during that period. • The case of Saudi Arabia is also striking, with proven reserves estimated at between 260 and 264 billion barrels (4.20×1010 m3) in the past 18 years, a variation of less than 2%,while extracting 60 billion barrels (9.5×109 m3) during this period. • In July 2011, OPEC's Annual Statistical Review showed Venezuela's reserves to be larger than Saudi Arabia's.
17. 2.2) United States Prof. Dr. H.Z. Harraz PresentationNovember 22, 2015 17 The proven reserves for the US have increased dramatically in just one year from the published data of 25.4 Billion barrels of recoverable oil in 2012 to 38.4 and climbing for 2013.
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