As Russia has recovered, economic growth—which was rapid in the 2000s—has driven the country’s emissions up, though at a significantly slower pace than in developing countries. A number of factors have allowed the Russian economy to grow quickly while greenhouse gas emissions have increased at a relatively slow rate: economic restructuring that has favored services instead of heavy industry, improved capacity utilization at facilities that were largely left idle during the 1990s, and, most of all, high oil prices during this period. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has described this as relative decoupling of emissions from GDP growth.9
Second, the “historical responsibility” argument that calls for countries to be held accountable for their cumulative emissions is not in Russia’s favor. According to that argument, Russia would have a significant global responsibility. The USSR was the second-largest carbon emitter not only during its last days but almost throughout its entire history. When the USSR collapsed, the Russian Federation was already locked in with an economy that had a level of carbon intensity that could no longer be justified in an increasingly carbon-constrained world.10 Today, in terms of its cumulative carbon dioxide emissions, Russia stands behind the United States and China.11