1. Why JTC did not issued 2013 revised Business Plan considering Toshiba recovering plan?
Normally, some customer which they have a good enough system, they will send yearly forecast to supplier. But Toshiba (TCP) never issue yearly forecast to any supplier.
TCP always issue forecast longest that we can see maximum = N+4 and in our experiences we always found N+3 and N+4 imprecisely and un-trustable since we make business with them.
That mean precisely forecast data able to use maximum = N+1 to N+2.
We knew information for their production will increase in supplier meeting since end of Jun. But very rough information and unable to use that information for calculate yearly demand.
TCP never issue yearly forecast as explain on above. We tried to request long term forecast as much as possible to TCP but negative feedback. Because their internal system not yet any conclusion for re-born.
Then we submit Business Plan and monthly order on Jul, we used Jun’s forecast (Jul’s forecast not yet issued from TCP before submit BS plan and MO).
Note; on Jun, TCP’s demand doesn’t increase (able to see until Sep’13).
Until we get support special forecast on Jul (after submit Business Plan and M/O to KRA), we found long term F/C (able to see until Mar’14) and demand increasing.
Therefore, we issued add order to KRA around 24 Jul 13.
Note: we don’t touch Business Plan because we already submitted.
Why we don’t considering forecast since we submit Business Plan?
We found many factors in actual management.
1. We unsure in re-born model because after flooded in Thailand, TCP had terminated and set up some new model.
2. TCP’s forecast just shown only bearing quantity. Purchase system doesn’t show by model. Purchaser also doesn’t have such kind of data. We can’t calculation. It only their internal computer system that automatic calculates.
3. Latest BOMP Master Data as we have, we couldn’t calculation bearing demand because we and purchaser don’t know forecast by model. Unless purchaser shall special request to sales department but purchaser doesn’t want to support us (poor TCPs’ corporation found).
4. Off cause, we can predict long term forecast by ourselves but problem is when we should adjust production up and how many?
5. We don’t trust customer’s information. TCP ever inform like this (production up / recovering soon / re-born plan) since April 2012 but exactly postpone and postpone and postpone several times until this month that to see demand up officially from TCP until Mar’14 maximum.
6. JTC’s policy for 2013 from President Arai san = reduce stock as much as possible. We found huge stock situation. We can’t against that policy. Therefore, prediction without precisely information support is risky and not suitable for both sites.
We really need you understand TCP’s system and purchase behavior. If in future we found such kind of these questions from KRA, we will refer to this e-mail. We inform hold figure and quite clear. That is the best as we can do it.
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2. According you request tentative production until Oct’2014 by re-checks to TCP, Sorry we can’t support because of many reasons on above. Therefore, the best are using latest forecast on Aug (able to see until Mar’14) and prediction trend of demand for Apr’14 – Sep’14.
We will send to you on Monday. You will found big increase because JTC also adjustment standard stocks up for support demand increase too.
Note; If their demand not same as our prediction. Please support for revise production request.
Sorry for all inconvenience to all of you. Please realizes that we don’t want to make you trouble if not necessary and please don’t recommend to us regarding sales responsibility. We have responsibility and know TCP well.