variance of 4.10%. Week 2 results also show
variance of 7.03% below the actual production.
This variance will also be decreased to 4.85% when
the upper half width of the simulated production is
considered.
Weeks 3 and 4 show minimal variance of 1.71%
and 3.74% respectively below the actual
productions for the two weeks which when the
upper half widths are considered, the variances will
be very minimal.
The total simulated average production for the four
weeks is 2.34% below the total actual production.
When the upper half width of 213 716.45 BCM of
the simulated production is taken into account, the
total variance between the simulated and the actual
production will be reduced to 1 624.55 BCM,
representing 0.76% below the actual production.
Since the deterministic method is the existing
method of forecasting production in the mine, the
actual production was compared to the planned
(deterministic) production as shown in Table 6. It
can be seen that the deviations for Weeks 1 and 4
exceeded 10%. The total simulated average
production for the four weeks is 5.44% below the
total actual production. This is more than twice the
deviation given by the stochastic method.