The cause of the crash has not yet been determined by the official investigation, which is being carried out by the Dutch Safety Board.[118] Both US and Ukrainian officials declared that a surface-to-air missile strike is the most likely cause,[119] and if so, then the missile was fired from a mobile Soviet-designed Buk missile system (known as SA-11 "Gadfly" to NATO) as this is the only surface-to-air missile system in the region capable of reaching the altitude of commercial air traffic.[56][120][121][122][123][124] According to defence analyst Reed Foster (from Jane's Information Group), the contour of the aluminium and the blistering of the paint around many of the holes on the aircraft fragments indicate that small pieces of high-velocity shrapnel entered the aircraft externally, a damage pattern indicative of an SA-11.[125] Ballistics specialist Stephan Fruhling of the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre concurs with this, explaining that since it struck the cockpit rather than an engine it was probably a radar guided, rather than heat seeking, missile equipped with a proximity fuzed warhead such as a SA-11.