Chart 1 shows that, generally speaking, more money relative to income is associated with a higher price level
in the United States since 1953. The upward trend in money relative to income is matched by a similar trend
in the price level. Changes in the growth rate of money relative to real income also are matched by similar
changes in the inflation rate. There generally is a close relationship between the two series.
There is, however, one noticeable exception to this generalization. An apparently unprecedented deviation
appears in the 1990s: money relative to income falls, and the price level does not. This divergence between the
price level and money relative to income suggests that money growth can be misleading. For the first half of the
decade the behavior of money relative to real income suggests virtually no inflation. Although the actual inflation
rate during this period is substantially lower than in the 1970s and 1980s, it is not zero on average. After a relatively
brief period of time the slopes of the two lines do appear to agree for later years in the decade. This subsequent
parallel movement suggests that the different growth rates may be specific to the early 1990s. Is this
recent divergence for the United States unusual?
Inflation and Money Growth in the Twentieth Century
This section takes a broader look at the relation between money and prices to answer this question.
The historical behavior of the price levels and money relative to real income in several selected
countries can be used to illustrate how well money relative to real income tracks the price level. The countries
represent a wide range of economic and institutional conditions over time. The United States and the United
Kingdom are representative of relatively low-inflation, high-income economies. In contrast, Brazil and Chile are
countries that have experienced substantially higher average inflation in the twentieth century. Even though
the average inflation rate has been higher in these two countries, both have had different experiences and incidences
of inflation over time. Japan has a substantially different history than any of the other countries and a
substantially different time pattern of inflation.
United States and United Kingdom. Chart 2 shows the relationship between the price level and money relative
to real income in the United States and the United Kingdom since 1900. The United Kingdom has experienced substantially more inflation than the United States in the twentieth century. This higher inflation is associated
with a much larger increase in money relative to real income in the United Kingdom than in the United States.
In both countries substantial inflations and deflations are associated with corresponding changes in money relative
to real income. Still, there are deviations between prices and money relative to real income, and sometimes
these departures are persistent.
The deviation of the price level from money relative to real income in the United States in the 1990s is not the
only one in the century, nor is it the largest. For instance, in the early years of the century, money relative to real
income grew more rapidly than the price level. One explanation for this phenomenon is the increased financial
development of the United States (Friedman and Schwartz 1982). Even so, the rapid increases in money relative to real
income after World War I are associated with increases in the price levels in both countries.
The decreases in money relative to income in the Great Depression in the 1930s are associated with decreases
in the price levels.12 Even the pattern during the Great Depression, with all its turmoil, is consistent
with the long-run relationship between money and prices. More recently, the sustained inflation since
World War II is associated with a sustained increase in money relative to real income. The higher inflation in
the 1970s and the slowing since the 1980s are associated with similar movements in the growth of money relative
to real income, as the quantity theory suggests. Although both countries had a wide range of experiences
during the past century, the common link between increases in the price level and increases in
money relative to income is clear.
Brazil and Chile.
Chart 3 shows the relationship between the price level and money relative to real income in Brazil and Chile. Unlike for the United States and the United Kingdom, data are not available for each country for the entire century. The time spans are reasonably long, though. The data for Brazil start in 1912, and the data for Chile start in 1940. As in the preceding
charts, the graphs show the price level and money relative to real income with average values of 100. In this
chart, however, the vertical and horizontal scales of the two graphs are not the same.
The very high inflation rates in these countries compared with the United States and the United Kingdom
stand out in Chart 3. The price level in Brazil has risen from being on the order of 10–12 in 1912 to 1,000 in the 1990s.
The implied change in prices is hard to contemplate. In terms of dollars, such an increase would mean that a good
with a price of $1 in 1912 would have a price of $1,000 trillion in the 1990s. This is a large increase in prices by any
standard. Brazil’s average inflation rate was 43.6 percent per year from 1912 to 1996. Chile also had relatively high
inflation. Chile’s average inflation rate was 33.2 percent per year from 1940 to 1997. This high average rate of inflation
in Chile stems in large part from the increases in the price level in the 1970s when the inflation rate averages 90
percent per year.
More informative than just money relative to real income tracking
the price level, changes in the rate of increase in the price level are associated with changes in the rate of increase in money relative to real income in Chart 3. The slope of the line for the price level is the inflation rate. In Brazil the inflation rate increased in the 1980s and declined dramatically in recent years. This change in inflation is associated with a like change in money relative to real income. Similarly, in Chile the inflation rate increased in the 1970s and fell in the 1980s and 1990s. This decrease in the inflation rate also is associated with a decrease in the growth of money relative to real
income. As in low-inflation countries, there is a positive association between inflation and growth of money relative
to real income in high-inflation countries.
Japan. Japan has a very different history in the twentieth century than the other countries discussed.
Japan was occupied after World War II, and many of its political institutions were forcibly changed. Chart 4 shows
that World War II also is reflected in the history of Japan’s price level. Both before and after the war, Japan had relatively
low inflation rates and relatively low growth of money relative to income. As for the United States, money
relative to real income increased more rapidly than the price level in the early years of the twentieth century, possibly
also because of increasing monetization and financial development of its economy.