Refineries in Southeast Asia process just under 4 mb/d, at about 80% utilisation rates,
slightly below the global average. In our projections about 2.6 mb/d of new capacity, at a
total cost of almost $100 billion, is expected to be brought online between now and 2040,
with Malaysia and Thailand likely to build one relatively big refinery each, Indonesia and
Viet Nam possibly two each, along with some other smaller additions elsewhere in the
region (Table 3.2). Average utilisation rates are expected to increase as well, reaching about
88% by 2040. However, in most other regions of the world, especially in Europe, OECD Asia
and North America, refinery utilisation rates will decline, with over almost 15 mb/d of
excess capacity at risk of shutdown by 2040.