This paper studies recurring annual events potentially introducing
seasonality into gold prices. We analyze gold returns for each
month from 1980 to 2010 and find that September and November
are the only months with positive and statistically significant gold
price changes. This “autumn effect” holds unconditionally and conditional
on several risk factors. We argue that the anomaly can
be explained with hedging demand by investors in anticipation of
the “Halloween effect” in the stock market, wedding season gold
jewelery demand in India and negative investor sentiment due to
shorter daylight time. The autumn effect can also be characterized
by a higher unconditional and conditional volatility than in other
seasons.