This research examines the application of three computational intelligence techniques namely artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and support vector machine (SVM) in Thailand’s Para rubber production forecasting in comparison with hybrid PSO&SVM model.
The parameters of SVM are determined by PSO, which is not needed to consider the analytic property of the generalization performance measure and can avoid the occurrence of over-fitting or under-fitting of the SVM model due to improper determination of these parameters. The proposed method and models were tested using real datasets from a large size catchment of the Thailand’s Para rubber production forecasting.
The hybrid PSO&SVM model provides better accuracy than ANN, PSO and SVM models because it is a non-linear mapping between input and output. However, when the results of forecasting are tested by Tukey Simultaneous tests, the results show that the forecasts of the three models are not statistically significant difference. Furthermore, hybrid PSO&SVM has no statistical assumption about the data distribution, hence made it more versatile. Nevertheless, hybrid PSO&SVM suffers from overtraining problem and also another major drawback of ANN is its black-box like ability. SVM has recently been compared with ANN as it solve overtraining problem of ANN.