TPARK Logistics Property Fund
Asset performance still steady. Average occupancy at end-June 2014 was stable
from the previous quarter at 94%. Backing the stable performance was the continued
demand for warehouses in both the Northern and the Eastern regions driven by thirdparty
logistics (3PL). Reflecting its stable performance, TLOGIS reported 2Q14 net
investment income of Bt92mn (+3% YoY and +5% QoQ), with the YoY increase coming
largely from lower fund expenses (-26% YoY) on lower property management fees
(-29% YoY). Including realized/unrealized gains, net increase in net assets was Bt162mn
(+68% YoY and +86% QoQ) with unrealized gains of Bt70mn coming from revaluation of
48 of its warehouses. 1H14 performance accounts for 56% of our forecast and we leave
forecast unchanged in anticipation of a weaker 2H14.
2H14 income warning on Big C's exit. In 2H14, 21% (percent of revenue) of its leases
are expiring. Among these is a major tenant, Big C, which accounts for 11% of the
fund's income. Its contract expired in July and at last check the fund has not yet found
a replacement. We have already assumed the warehouse will be vacant through 2H14
since it is relatively large in size, but can be divided into four smaller units of ~6,000
sqm each. Therefore we expect occupancy rate - and the fund's operating performance
- to drop in 3Q14 before recovering slightly in 4Q14. Backing the recovery is our
assumption that the fund will be able to find new tenants for other unoccupied space.
In sum, though we expect 2H14 to be weaker than 1H14, it is already in our forecast.
Long term outlook still solid. Although TLOGIS's performance is expected to slide in
the near term, we are still positive on its long term outlook. We expect the fund's
occupancy to improve, driven by strong demand for warehouses coming from: 1) the
rise in number of 3PL providers, spurred by the opening of AEC, which will help increase
trade, in turn leading to more outsourcing for logistics needs, and the rise in
urbanization; and 2) the strong e-commerce trend facilitated by greater internet
availability, which will generate greater demand for warehouse space for inventory
stocking. Thus, with tenants in the logistics sector accounting for more than half of its
revenues, we remain positive on TLOGIS long term outlook and expect its earnings to
continue to grow.
Maintain BUY. Our mid-2015 TP remains unchanged at Bt13/share and we maintain
our BUY rating in response to our positive outlook for TLOGIS and its earnings growth.
TLOGIS's IRR is also still attractive at 8.0%, 400bps higher than 3-5 investment grade
bonds, 440bps higher than 10-yr govt bond, and 510bps above 12-mth fixed deposits.
Key risks. 1) Slower than expected replacement for Big C's space; 2) lower rent hike
than expected; 3) macro-economic environment. Note: if TICON merges all its property
funds and its new REIT together, existing unit holders will lose their privileges over
freehold assets and tax benefits for some specific unit holders will also be reduced.
TPARK Logistics Property Fund Asset performance still steady. Average occupancy at end-June 2014 was stable from the previous quarter at 94%. Backing the stable performance was the continued demand for warehouses in both the Northern and the Eastern regions driven by thirdparty logistics (3PL). Reflecting its stable performance, TLOGIS reported 2Q14 net investment income of Bt92mn (+3% YoY and +5% QoQ), with the YoY increase coming largely from lower fund expenses (-26% YoY) on lower property management fees (-29% YoY). Including realized/unrealized gains, net increase in net assets was Bt162mn (+68% YoY and +86% QoQ) with unrealized gains of Bt70mn coming from revaluation of 48 of its warehouses. 1H14 performance accounts for 56% of our forecast and we leave forecast unchanged in anticipation of a weaker 2H14. 2H14 income warning on Big C's exit. In 2H14, 21% (percent of revenue) of its leases are expiring. Among these is a major tenant, Big C, which accounts for 11% of the fund's income. Its contract expired in July and at last check the fund has not yet found a replacement. We have already assumed the warehouse will be vacant through 2H14 since it is relatively large in size, but can be divided into four smaller units of ~6,000 sqm each. Therefore we expect occupancy rate - and the fund's operating performance - to drop in 3Q14 before recovering slightly in 4Q14. Backing the recovery is our assumption that the fund will be able to find new tenants for other unoccupied space. In sum, though we expect 2H14 to be weaker than 1H14, it is already in our forecast. Long term outlook still solid. Although TLOGIS's performance is expected to slide in the near term, we are still positive on its long term outlook. We expect the fund's occupancy to improve, driven by strong demand for warehouses coming from: 1) the rise in number of 3PL providers, spurred by the opening of AEC, which will help increase trade, in turn leading to more outsourcing for logistics needs, and the rise in urbanization; and 2) the strong e-commerce trend facilitated by greater internet availability, which will generate greater demand for warehouse space for inventory stocking. Thus, with tenants in the logistics sector accounting for more than half of its revenues, we remain positive on TLOGIS long term outlook and expect its earnings to continue to grow.Maintain BUY. Our mid-2015 TP remains unchanged at Bt13/share and we maintain our BUY rating in response to our positive outlook for TLOGIS and its earnings growth. TLOGIS's IRR is also still attractive at 8.0%, 400bps higher than 3-5 investment grade bonds, 440bps higher than 10-yr govt bond, and 510bps above 12-mth fixed deposits. Key risks. 1) Slower than expected replacement for Big C's space; 2) lower rent hike than expected; 3) macro-economic environment. Note: if TICON merges all its property funds and its new REIT together, existing unit holders will lose their privileges over freehold assets and tax benefits for some specific unit holders will also be reduced.
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