The logic of causal analysis and the problems involved in establishing causal linkages are discussed at length by Cook and Campbell (1979). These authors, following the lead of epistemologists such as John Stuart Mill, identify three key criteria for inferring a cause and effect relationship: (a) covariation between the presumed cause(s) and effect(s); (b) temporal precedence of the cause(s); and (c) exclusion of alternative explanations for cause-effect linkages. These criteria are well known among social scientists, and proscriptions like "correlation does not imply causation" and "the cause must precede its presumed effect" are commonly heard. Nonetheless, it is the rare investigation of marriage relationships that seriously attempts to satisfy all three of the above requirements for causal inference2.